Five Million Illegal Firearms: Ukraine Races to Prevent Possible Post-War Arms Crisis
November 07, 2025
Ukraine could be sitting on a powder keg of up to five million illicit firearms — more than triple pre-war estimates — raising the spectre of a Balkans-style weapons surge into the European Union unless urgent safeguards are put in place.
This warning came from Member of Ukraine’s Parliament Oleksandr Danutsa during a workshop, which brought together lawmakers, security operators, veterans’ organisations, and international partners last week to address one of Ukraine’s most pressing post-conflict challenges: how to manage both the weapons and the warriors when the fighting stops.
Organised by the European Union Advisory Mission (EUAM) Ukraine in partnership with the Centre for Security Studies (CENSS), a Ukrainian think tank specialising in security and public administration, the event examined how private security companies (PSCs) can operate responsibly in a post-war context. It also focused on preventing the diversion of small arms and light weapons (SALW) into illicit circulation.
Pirita Vourisalo, Head of EUAM’s Organized crime Unit noted that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine created unprecedented challenges and seriously affected regional security. The activities of private security companies in both conflict and post-conflict situations require strict regulation and a comprehensive approach that combines legislative reform, operational capacity building, and public-private partnership.
According to experts estimates, around 100,000 veterans may seek employment in private security companies after demobilisation. Integrating them into civilian life through regulated security work could be part of a national reintegration strategy — but only if the right legislative framework exists.
“There is a risk that these firearms, as it was the case after the conflict in the Balkans, could end up in the countries of the European Union. We must, together with our European partners, put in place “safeguards” to prevent this,” – said Oleksandr Danutsa.
Also he stressed that Ukraine remains the only country in Europe without a law regulating civilian firearms circulation. Draft laws No. 5708 and 5709, now awaiting adoption, aim to close this gap. Meanwhile, the estimated number of unregistered weapons continues to rise.
Mr Danutsa expressed gratitude to EUAM for its ongoing support to national institutions and its contribution to strengthening firearms control in Ukraine.
The discussion concluded that Ukraine’s private security sector holds significant potential for veteran employment and public safety. But only through clear regulation, sustained oversight, and international cooperation can the country ensure that the tools and skills of war serve peace rather than undermine it.
